Playoff Projection Report
Introduction
The playoff probability reports will be generated on a daily basis until the end of the regular season. The probabilties are empirical estimates based on simulating the remainder of the season 1000 times. Although I am not going to give complete details at this time, the method has been tried and tested: it was used to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.
Sample Report
Rk | Eastern Conference | W | L | OL | PTS | Current | Remain | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | Top Seed | Win Conf | Win Cup |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Boston Bruins | 56.0 | 16.2 | 9.8 | 121.8 | 88 | 34 | 132 | 110 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 94.8% | 43.7% | 25.9% |
2 | Washington Capitals | 51.9 | 23.1 | 7.0 | 110.8 | 79 | 32 | 124 | 98 | 100.0% | 99.4% | 4.3% | 17.1% | 7.1% |
3 | New Jersey Devils | 50.7 | 26.0 | 5.3 | 106.7 | 75 | 32 | 119 | 92 | 100.0% | 80.8% | 0.9% | 16.9% | 7.4% |
4 | Philadelphia Flyers | 44.6 | 25.6 | 11.8 | 101.0 | 69 | 32 | 115 | 85 | 98.6% | 18.0% | 9.8% | 3.6% | |
5 | Montreal Canadiens | 43.1 | 29.3 | 9.6 | 95.9 | 67 | 29 | 109 | 76 | 93.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | ||
6 | New York Rangers | 42.5 | 30.8 | 8.7 | 93.8 | 68 | 26 | 107 | 79 | 88.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% | |
7 | Florida Panthers | 41.6 | 29.7 | 10.7 | 93.9 | 66 | 28 | 109 | 81 | 87.5% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 0.8% | |
8 | Buffalo Sabres | 42.7 | 30.8 | 8.5 | 93.9 | 64 | 30 | 107 | 74 | 87.5% | 4.3% | 0.9% | ||
9 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 38.8 | 34.6 | 8.7 | 86.2 | 60 | 26 | 101 | 71 | 23.8% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
10 | Carolina Hurricanes | 38.7 | 35.4 | 7.9 | 85.3 | 61 | 24 | 101 | 73 | 17.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
11 | Ottawa Senators | 34.0 | 36.0 | 12.1 | 80.0 | 53 | 27 | 94 | 65 | 3.2% | ||||
12 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 31.1 | 37.6 | 13.3 | 75.5 | 52 | 23 | 88 | 64 | 0.3% | ||||
13 | Atlanta Thrashers | 31.0 | 42.7 | 8.3 | 70.3 | 47 | 23 | 88 | 56 | |||||
14 | New York Islanders | 25.2 | 47.1 | 9.6 | 60.1 | 40 | 20 | 72 | 46 | |||||
15 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 29.0 | 38.6 | 14.4 | 72.3 | 49 | 23 | 85 | 58 |
Here is a description of each of the columns:
- W, L, OL, and PTS are the average number of wins, losses, overtime losses, and points, respectively, that the team had in the 1000 simulations.
- Current is the team's curent point total.
- Remain is the team's projected point total the remainder of the season.
- Best is the team's best point total in the 1000 iterations.
- Worst is the team's worst point total in the 1000 iterations.
- Playoffs is the percentage of times the team made the playoffs in the 1000 iterations.
- Division is the percentage of times the team won their division in the 1000 iterations.
- Top Seed is the percentage of times the team was the top seed in their conference in the 1000 iterations.
- Win Conf is the percentage of times the team won the conference playoffs in the 1000 iterations.
- Win Cup is the percentage of times the team won the Stanley Cup in the 1000 iterations.
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