Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Eastern Conference

  • Explanation
  • Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Eastern Conference Table
Rk Team W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Atlantic Division
1Tampa Bay Lightning50.023.78.3108.33276127821.450.0599.4%1.0%79.2%61.1%24.9%14.5%
2Toronto Maple Leafs45.929.66.598.32870119800.590.0087.9%8.4%13.5%8.1%12.5%6.7%
3Detroit Red Wings40.931.29.991.72369113700.10-0.1453.8%13.5%2.7%1.7%6.0%3.2%
4Ottawa Senators38.829.913.390.9226911564-0.13-0.1350.3%13.5%2.8%1.2%4.2%2.3%
5Boston Bruins39.331.611.189.7207011162-0.220.1045.2%13.7%1.7%0.4%2.7%1.5%
                                   
6Florida Panthers37.235.59.483.7166810657-0.410.1418.0%8.4%1.6%0.7%
7Montreal Canadiens34.437.99.778.6186110358-1.130.014.5%2.0%
8Buffalo Sabres31.638.511.875.1146110153-1.33-0.091.7%0.3%0.1%
Metropolitan Division
1Columbus Blue Jackets45.329.27.598.02771115760.570.1482.7%15.9%28.2%8.6%11.3%6.2%
2New Jersey Devils43.628.310.197.32770118740.16-0.0579.7%18.9%22.8%7.1%8.9%4.1%
3New York Islanders43.729.68.796.12472119750.480.1377.1%21.2%20.9%5.9%10.2%5.7%
                                   
4Carolina Hurricanes41.729.311.094.42272118680.330.1266.9%18.3%15.3%3.6%8.1%4.7%
5New York Rangers40.332.69.189.7226811564-0.010.0443.9%19.5%5.2%1.1%4.0%2.4%
6Pittsburgh Penguins39.132.610.388.4256310867-0.75-0.0234.1%17.5%3.2%0.4%2.0%0.7%
7Philadelphia Flyers38.132.811.187.4206711266-0.070.0730.3%14.5%3.4%0.8%3.0%1.4%
8Washington Capitals39.034.68.486.4236310967-0.57-0.2024.5%13.4%1.0%0.6%0.2%

Western Conference

  • Explanation
  • Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Western Conference Table
Rk Team W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Central Division
1St. Louis Blues49.125.67.3105.53373128830.960.0596.3%6.2%59.2%45.9%20.0%8.9%
2Winnipeg Jets43.928.29.997.62771118720.39-0.1677.0%19.8%15.5%10.9%9.4%4.7%
3Nashville Predators44.129.08.997.12671117760.300.0575.9%20.3%11.8%7.3%9.0%4.8%
4Chicago Blackhawks41.531.58.992.02270115690.31-0.0949.1%21.3%3.7%2.1%5.4%2.7%
5Colorado Avalanche42.032.17.991.92171121680.150.1048.4%20.7%4.0%2.4%5.6%2.5%
                                   
6Minnesota Wild40.531.410.191.12170115680.19-0.0145.9%21.4%3.9%1.7%3.9%1.9%
7Dallas Stars40.733.08.389.7236711169-0.13-0.0936.9%19.8%1.9%1.1%3.5%1.6%
Pacific Division
1Vegas Golden Knights44.629.48.097.32572119750.37-0.1578.1%9.4%29.8%9.5%9.9%4.6%
2Los Angeles Kings44.329.08.797.22671123750.710.0580.3%10.9%29.7%9.3%12.4%6.1%
3Calgary Flames43.031.97.193.1246912072-0.010.0457.7%12.3%13.1%3.3%5.4%2.0%
                                   
4San Jose Sharks42.131.88.192.32171115670.170.0255.9%12.3%9.2%2.3%6.2%2.3%
5Anaheim Ducks41.130.710.292.32369118660.140.0453.0%12.5%11.6%3.1%5.4%2.1%
6Vancouver Canucks39.732.210.289.5236611268-0.19-0.0438.4%10.3%5.9%1.1%3.6%1.2%
7Edmonton Oilers34.837.59.779.4166310256-0.860.046.5%2.4%0.6%0.3%0.3%
8Arizona Coyotes30.740.710.672.013599447-1.210.010.6%0.4%0.1%
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