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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Projected Standings

Explanation ▪ Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Rk Eastern Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Atlantic Division
1 Montreal Canadiens 49.6 23.8 8.5 107.8 102 6 112 102 0.35 -0.03 100.0% 54.0% 19.4% 14.7% 6.5%
2 Tampa Bay Lightning 49.8 24.7 7.5 107.1 101 6 111 101 0.57 -0.05 100.0% 46.0% 18.5% 15.0% 7.4%
3 Detroit Red Wings 43.6 25.6 12.8 100.0 92 8 106 92 0.14 -0.04 98.2% 10.9% 8.9% 3.8%
4 Boston Bruins 41.0 27.4 13.7 95.6 89 7 101 89 0.05 -0.02 74.7% 64.6% 5.1% 2.1%
                                   
5 Ottawa Senators 40.4 28.7 12.9 93.7 86 8 100 86 0.15 -0.05 24.0% 21.4% 1.9% 0.9%
6 Florida Panthers 38.0 28.3 15.7 91.7 85 7 97 85 -0.25 -0.03 5.8% 5.8% 0.3% 0.2%
7 Toronto Maple Leafs 30.8 44.5 6.8 68.3 62 6 74 62 -0.58 0.02
8 Buffalo Sabres 23.3 49.8 8.9 55.5 50 5 62 50 -1.35 0.06
Metropolitan Division
1 New York Rangers 50.9 23.4 7.7 109.5 101 8 115 102 0.64 -0.04 100.0% 100.0% 62.1% 20.3% 10.9%
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 45.2 25.2 11.6 102.1 95 7 107 95 0.27 0.00 99.9% 12.8% 11.3% 5.7%
3 New York Islanders 47.8 28.7 5.5 101.1 95 6 105 95 0.28 0.02 99.9% 20.1% 10.6% 5.6%
4 Washington Capitals 44.1 27.2 10.6 98.9 92 7 104 92 0.41 -0.05 97.5% 64.4% 11.9% 5.7%
                                   
5 Columbus Blue Jackets 39.5 37.7 4.8 83.9 76 8 90 76 -0.31 0.03
6 Philadelphia Flyers 32.9 31.4 17.7 83.5 77 7 89 77 -0.28 0.00
7 New Jersey Devils 33.5 35.7 12.8 79.9 74 6 86 74 -0.34 0.00
8 Carolina Hurricanes 31.4 38.8 11.8 74.5 67 8 81 68 -0.36 0.04
Rk Western Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Central Division
1 Nashville Predators 49.7 23.8 8.5 108.0 102 6 112 102 0.44 0.02 100.0% 100.0% 25.5% 15.7% 8.9%
2 St. Louis Blues 49.2 25.1 7.7 106.1 99 7 111 99 0.51 0.00 100.0% 10.0% 14.1% 7.2%
3 Chicago Blackhawks 49.2 26.1 6.6 105.1 98 7 110 98 0.56 0.02 100.0% 18.1% 16.6% 10.0%
4 Minnesota Wild 47.0 27.3 7.7 101.7 95 7 107 95 0.43 -0.01 99.6% 71.5% 13.3% 7.4%
5 Winnipeg Jets 42.0 27.3 12.7 96.6 90 7 102 90 0.21 0.02 68.0% 68.0% 8.5% 4.0%
                                   
6 Dallas Stars 39.2 32.1 10.7 89.2 84 5 94 84 -0.07 0.04 0.2% 0.2%
7 Colorado Avalanche 37.8 31.5 12.7 88.3 82 6 94 82 -0.05 0.05 0.1% 0.1%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 51.4 23.3 7.4 110.1 105 5 113 105 0.14 0.00 100.0% 100.0% 74.5% 10.7% 4.5%
2 Vancouver Canucks 47.3 29.1 5.6 100.1 93 7 105 93 0.16 -0.03 99.3% 0.8% 8.8% 4.4%
3 Calgary Flames 44.7 29.8 7.5 96.9 91 6 101 91 0.29 -0.03 83.8% 9.0% 8.5% 3.5%
                                   
4 Los Angeles Kings 40.2 27.1 14.7 95.1 88 7 100 88 0.12 0.00 47.2% 20.9% 3.6% 1.1%
5 San Jose Sharks 40.4 32.0 9.6 90.3 83 7 95 84 -0.02 0.02 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2%
6 Edmonton Oilers 25.4 42.8 13.8 64.5 59 6 71 59 -0.90 0.02
7 Arizona Coyotes 24.7 48.6 8.7 58.2 54 4 64 54 -1.19 0.04