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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Projected Standings

Explanation ▪ Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Rk Eastern Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 44.2 28.3 9.5 97.9 7 91 122 71 1.65 0.25 77.1% 8.5% 31.4% 17.5% 13.5% 6.7%
2 Ottawa Senators 44.1 29.4 8.5 96.7 8 89 120 66 0.99 0.19 71.5% 9.6% 24.2% 12.3% 13.6% 7.8%
3 Montreal Canadiens 42.4 30.6 9.0 93.8 10 84 120 67 0.23 0.23 60.5% 12.7% 13.2% 6.3% 8.0% 3.7%
4 Florida Panthers 40.9 31.2 10.0 91.7 4 88 120 54 -0.49 0.71 49.3% 14.7% 10.4% 5.8% 6.8% 2.7%
                                   
5 Detroit Red Wings 40.8 32.0 9.2 90.8 7 84 116 65 0.49 -0.11 45.4% 13.5% 9.2% 4.4% 4.8% 3.1%
6 Toronto Maple Leafs 40.1 32.7 9.3 89.4 5 84 112 60 -0.59 0.07 40.4% 14.4% 6.2% 2.2% 4.1% 2.3%
7 Boston Bruins 38.8 34.0 9.2 86.8 6 81 115 63 -0.36 -0.07 27.8% 10.1% 3.1% 1.3% 2.2% 1.1%
8 Buffalo Sabres 37.7 34.8 9.5 85.0 2 83 112 60 -2.43 -0.10 20.9% 9.4% 2.3% 0.6% 1.9% 1.0%
Metropolitan Division
1 New Jersey Devils 44.2 29.1 8.7 97.1 6 91 124 72 1.30 1.10 74.9% 14.1% 26.0% 12.7% 11.1% 6.9%
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 43.4 29.8 8.8 95.6 6 90 124 71 1.97 0.47 67.7% 12.3% 22.0% 11.6% 8.9% 5.1%
3 Washington Capitals 41.5 30.2 10.2 93.3 8 85 124 65 2.04 0.64 56.4% 14.1% 14.0% 7.7% 6.2% 3.3%
                                   
4 New York Islanders 41.8 31.0 9.2 92.8 8 85 121 62 0.82 -0.18 54.4% 14.2% 13.5% 7.0% 5.8% 2.5%
5 Columbus Blue Jackets 41.7 31.1 9.1 92.6 6 87 123 64 -0.07 -0.67 54.9% 15.1% 10.9% 6.2% 5.2% 2.5%
6 Carolina Hurricanes 40.0 32.8 9.2 89.1 2 87 112 57 -1.86 -0.61 37.6% 13.5% 4.9% 1.8% 2.7% 1.5%
7 Philadelphia Flyers 39.2 32.6 10.2 88.6 4 85 112 58 -0.23 0.57 36.0% 12.9% 6.0% 1.6% 3.9% 1.4%
8 New York Rangers 38.5 34.0 9.5 86.5 4 82 115 60 -1.66 -0.26 25.2% 10.9% 2.7% 1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Rk Western Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Central Division
1 Nashville Predators 44.1 29.1 8.8 97.0 8 89 120 67 0.98 0.18 81.5% 14.7% 27.8% 17.9% 14.1% 7.7%
2 Minnesota Wild 43.8 29.5 8.7 96.4 4 92 121 67 2.06 -0.28 78.2% 18.6% 24.0% 15.1% 13.2% 7.4%
3 Chicago Blackhawks 43.0 30.0 9.0 95.1 7 88 124 69 0.82 -0.43 73.7% 20.9% 19.1% 10.7% 10.7% 5.0%
4 Dallas Stars 41.1 31.0 9.9 92.1 6 86 116 66 0.30 0.70 63.1% 22.1% 11.2% 5.5% 7.7% 4.0%
                                   
5 Colorado Avalanche 40.5 32.5 9.0 89.9 3 87 120 58 -1.10 0.73 50.5% 20.1% 7.0% 4.3% 5.8% 2.2%
6 Winnipeg Jets 40.4 32.5 9.1 89.9 2 88 118 59 -0.65 0.35 51.2% 22.1% 7.3% 4.4% 6.4% 2.2%
7 St. Louis Blues 38.8 33.4 9.8 87.4 5 82 110 63 0.42 -1.08 39.6% 19.3% 3.6% 1.6% 3.1% 1.2%
Pacific Division
1 San Jose Sharks 44.0 29.3 8.7 96.7 9 88 131 64 2.52 0.72 83.3% 7.2% 34.1% 17.0% 12.3% 5.6%
2 Anaheim Ducks 42.8 30.5 8.7 94.4 8 86 121 66 1.37 0.37 74.5% 9.0% 26.2% 10.9% 9.5% 4.8%
3 Los Angeles Kings 40.6 31.4 10.0 91.2 7 84 114 66 0.09 -0.71 60.0% 11.4% 14.1% 4.4% 6.7% 2.9%
                                   
4 Arizona Coyotes 40.5 32.2 9.3 90.3 4 86 114 63 -2.20 -0.95 56.5% 10.7% 12.5% 3.7% 5.6% 3.1%
5 Vancouver Canucks 39.3 32.9 9.9 88.4 6 82 117 67 -0.80 -1.55 45.5% 10.4% 9.0% 3.4% 2.2% 0.9%
6 Edmonton Oilers 35.9 35.0 11.1 82.8 1 82 108 58 -3.65 -0.85 22.7% 7.4% 2.8% 0.8% 1.6% 0.3%
7 Calgary Flames 35.9 36.0 10.2 81.9 6 76 107 54 -0.55 -0.38 19.7% 6.1% 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.5%