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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Projected Standings

Explanation ▪ Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Rk Eastern Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Atlantic Division
1 Montreal Canadiens 51.1 23.8 7.0 109.3 87 22 121 95 0.46 -0.04 100.0% 0.3% 63.6% 39.5% 13.9% 6.9%
2 Detroit Red Wings 46.2 22.4 13.3 105.8 81 25 121 91 0.30 -0.05 99.9% 3.3% 20.7% 10.5% 11.9% 6.6%
3 Tampa Bay Lightning 48.2 26.0 7.9 104.2 82 22 116 92 0.56 -0.05 100.0% 3.1% 15.7% 6.4% 15.8% 9.0%
4 Boston Bruins 40.9 29.8 11.3 93.0 71 22 105 80 0.04 -0.03 64.1% 58.2% 4.1% 2.0%
                                   
5 Ottawa Senators 38.2 31.3 12.5 89.0 64 25 102 76 0.10 -0.04 19.3% 18.7% 1.3% 0.6%
6 Florida Panthers 36.7 29.9 15.4 88.8 69 20 101 75 -0.42 -0.04 16.0% 15.7% 0.3% 0.1%
7 Toronto Maple Leafs 34.2 40.5 7.3 75.6 55 21 88 62 -0.32 0.04
8 Buffalo Sabres 26.0 48.4 7.6 59.6 43 17 73 49 -1.33 0.08
Metropolitan Division
1 New York Rangers 49.9 24.0 8.1 107.9 84 24 121 94 0.65 -0.04 100.0% 4.3% 54.7% 25.5% 16.5% 9.6%
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 47.2 23.8 11.0 105.4 81 24 118 90 0.48 0.06 99.9% 10.4% 22.2% 9.8% 12.6% 7.3%
3 New York Islanders 50.7 27.4 3.9 105.3 84 21 116 92 0.41 0.00 100.0% 10.6% 21.4% 8.1% 13.0% 5.8%
4 Washington Capitals 43.7 26.4 11.9 99.4 78 21 111 87 0.42 -0.03 97.0% 71.6% 1.7% 0.2% 10.5% 4.8%
                                   
5 Philadelphia Flyers 35.9 32.7 13.4 85.2 65 20 99 72 -0.26 -0.02 2.7% 2.7%
6 New Jersey Devils 35.0 34.7 12.3 82.3 62 20 94 68 -0.32 0.04 1.1% 1.1% 0.1%
7 Carolina Hurricanes 34.0 38.7 9.3 77.4 55 22 92 64 -0.31 0.06
8 Columbus Blue Jackets 35.0 40.5 6.5 76.6 56 21 90 65 -0.53 0.05
Rk Western Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Central Division
1 Nashville Predators 51.0 22.2 8.8 110.8 89 22 121 97 0.59 0.01 100.0% 0.2% 70.9% 59.4% 17.4% 9.0%
2 St. Louis Blues 50.3 24.7 7.0 107.6 85 23 121 91 0.58 -0.02 99.8% 2.6% 26.1% 19.1% 17.3% 9.7%
3 Chicago Blackhawks 48.0 27.1 6.9 102.9 81 22 114 91 0.59 0.02 99.5% 15.3% 2.9% 2.1% 17.8% 8.3%
4 Minnesota Wild 43.1 29.7 9.2 95.3 73 22 107 83 0.19 -0.05 80.1% 69.6% 0.1% 0.1% 6.2% 3.2%
5 Winnipeg Jets 40.7 27.2 14.1 95.5 76 20 107 84 0.09 -0.02 78.4% 70.2% 5.8% 2.5%
                                   
6 Colorado Avalanche 36.4 32.4 13.2 86.0 65 21 100 74 -0.13 0.11 3.7% 3.6% 0.3%
7 Dallas Stars 35.8 33.9 12.3 83.9 64 20 98 73 -0.19 0.03 1.5% 1.5%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 49.2 23.7 9.1 107.5 87 20 120 95 0.16 -0.03 100.0% 91.3% 18.9% 12.5% 4.8%
2 Vancouver Canucks 46.9 30.0 5.1 98.9 75 24 111 85 0.20 -0.01 95.8% 4.2% 8.2% 0.4% 9.5% 4.6%
3 Calgary Flames 43.5 32.3 6.2 93.3 70 23 105 79 0.20 -0.05 65.3% 10.9% 0.3% 7.0% 3.0%
                                   
4 Los Angeles Kings 38.9 28.8 14.3 92.1 70 22 106 77 0.04 -0.03 49.7% 11.9% 0.2% 4.4% 1.7%
5 San Jose Sharks 39.8 32.1 10.1 89.7 70 20 102 78 -0.06 -0.03 26.2% 10.0% 1.8% 0.5%
6 Arizona Coyotes 27.5 44.9 9.7 64.6 47 18 79 51 -1.18 0.03
7 Edmonton Oilers 26.0 43.5 12.5 64.5 46 18 81 52 -1.00 0.03