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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Note: Teams are ordered by average finish in the conference for the 1000 simulations, so two or more teams from the same division may show up in the top three. However, when each season is simulated the division winners are assigned the top three seeds.

Projected Standings

Explanation ▪ Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Rk Eastern Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 35.0 13.0 0.0 70.0 72 -2 70 70 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 22.1% 13.4%
2 Montreal Canadiens 29.0 14.0 5.0 63.0 63 0 63 63 100.0% 100.0% 15.3% 8.0%
3 Washington Capitals 27.0 18.0 3.0 57.0 57 0 57 57 100.0% 100.0% 12.2% 7.3%
4 Boston Bruins 28.0 14.0 6.0 62.0 62 0 62 62 100.0% 12.5% 6.0%
5 Toronto Maple Leafs 26.0 17.0 5.0 57.0 57 0 57 57 100.0% 8.7% 3.5%
6 New York Rangers 26.0 18.0 4.0 56.0 56 0 56 56 100.0% 11.6% 6.3%
7 Ottawa Senators 25.0 17.0 6.0 56.0 56 0 56 56 100.0% 10.5% 4.5%
8 New York Islanders 24.0 17.0 7.0 55.0 55 0 55 55 100.0% 7.1% 2.8%
                             
9 Winnipeg Jets 24.0 21.0 3.0 51.0 51 0 51 51
10 Philadelphia Flyers 23.0 22.0 3.0 49.0 49 0 49 49
11 New Jersey Devils 19.0 19.0 10.0 48.0 48 0 48 48
12 Buffalo Sabres 21.0 21.0 6.0 48.0 48 0 48 48
13 Carolina Hurricanes 19.0 25.0 4.0 42.0 42 0 42 42
14 Tampa Bay Lightning 18.0 26.0 4.0 40.0 40 0 40 40
15 Florida Panthers 15.0 27.0 6.0 36.0 36 0 36 36
Rk Western Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
1 Chicago Blackhawks 36.0 7.0 5.0 77.0 77 0 77 77 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 28.2% 15.7%
2 Anaheim Ducks 30.0 12.0 6.0 66.0 66 0 66 66 100.0% 100.0% 16.1% 7.3%
3 Vancouver Canucks 26.0 15.0 7.0 59.0 59 0 59 59 100.0% 100.0% 8.3% 3.3%
4 St. Louis Blues 29.0 17.0 2.0 60.0 60 0 60 60 100.0% 11.0% 5.0%
5 Los Angeles Kings 27.0 16.0 5.0 59.0 59 0 59 59 100.0% 10.7% 6.0%
6 San Jose Sharks 25.0 16.0 7.0 57.0 57 0 57 57 100.0% 11.4% 4.6%
7 Detroit Red Wings 24.0 16.0 8.0 56.0 56 0 56 56 100.0% 9.6% 4.8%
8 Minnesota Wild 26.0 19.0 3.0 55.0 55 0 55 55 100.0% 4.7% 1.5%
                             
9 Columbus Blue Jackets 24.0 17.0 7.0 55.0 55 0 55 55
10 Phoenix Coyotes 21.0 18.0 9.0 51.0 51 0 51 51
11 Dallas Stars 22.0 22.0 4.0 48.0 48 0 48 48
12 Edmonton Oilers 19.0 22.0 7.0 45.0 45 0 45 45
13 Calgary Flames 19.0 25.0 4.0 42.0 42 0 42 42
14 Nashville Predators 16.0 23.0 9.0 41.0 41 0 41 41
15 Colorado Avalanche 16.0 25.0 7.0 39.0 39 0 39 39