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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Projected Standings

Explanation ▪ Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Rk Eastern Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 45.1 27.9 9.0 99.3 44 55 117 80 0.53 -0.04 88.5% 19.9% 27.1% 4.6% 10.9% 6.3%
2 Montreal Canadiens 45.9 28.8 7.3 99.1 44 55 118 78 0.27 0.01 86.0% 22.4% 23.2% 6.7% 9.7% 4.5%
3 Toronto Maple Leafs 45.1 28.7 8.2 98.4 41 57 118 75 0.55 0.07 83.4% 22.0% 22.3% 5.5% 11.7% 7.0%
4 Detroit Red Wings 42.6 26.1 13.3 98.4 42 56 118 77 0.38 0.04 84.3% 22.6% 20.0% 4.0% 10.3% 4.6%
5 Ottawa Senators 39.6 30.7 11.7 90.9 34 57 116 72 0.02 0.11 38.3% 20.2% 3.1% 0.5% 2.9% 1.4%
                                   
6 Florida Panthers 38.1 29.7 14.2 90.3 36 54 116 65 -0.46 -0.14 34.5% 19.3% 2.3% 0.3% 1.7% 0.6%
7 Boston Bruins 40.3 33.1 8.7 89.2 35 54 110 68 -0.09 0.00 29.9% 18.5% 2.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1%
8 Buffalo Sabres 33.4 40.1 8.5 75.2 28 47 95 55 -1.16 0.11 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Metropolitan Division
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 49.7 23.2 9.2 108.5 48 60 126 88 0.93 0.00 99.1% 1.7% 65.3% 53.1% 19.9% 11.7%
2 New York Islanders 49.3 27.4 5.2 103.9 46 58 121 80 0.50 0.11 96.6% 4.9% 27.1% 21.3% 14.0% 7.6%
3 New York Rangers 42.8 29.5 9.6 95.3 36 59 113 77 0.46 0.09 71.4% 17.5% 3.9% 2.5% 10.2% 4.9%
                                   
4 Washington Capitals 41.3 29.1 11.7 94.2 38 56 111 70 0.13 -0.18 64.2% 17.8% 3.4% 1.3% 5.5% 2.9%
5 Philadelphia Flyers 36.5 33.6 11.9 84.9 30 55 107 64 -0.24 0.01 12.7% 7.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.7%
6 Columbus Blue Jackets 36.8 35.9 9.2 82.9 31 52 106 61 -0.68 0.04 7.8% 3.6% 0.4% 0.1%
7 New Jersey Devils 34.2 36.1 11.7 80.1 30 50 99 59 -0.59 0.12 2.4% 1.4% 0.1%
8 Carolina Hurricanes 31.9 39.9 10.2 74.0 22 52 98 53 -0.71 0.01 0.5% 0.3%
Rk Western Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Central Division
1 Chicago Blackhawks 50.2 25.1 6.7 107.2 46 61 128 82 1.12 0.06 98.8% 7.7% 46.5% 39.9% 22.8% 12.4%
2 Nashville Predators 48.7 25.9 7.4 104.8 44 61 127 85 0.70 -0.04 97.3% 13.9% 29.5% 24.5% 16.0% 7.1%
3 St. Louis Blues 47.4 26.5 8.1 102.9 45 58 121 84 0.62 0.05 95.6% 15.8% 20.2% 15.4% 13.6% 7.1%
4 Winnipeg Jets 41.4 28.9 11.7 94.5 40 55 115 78 0.06 -0.06 66.1% 43.8% 2.5% 1.4% 6.2% 2.5%
5 Minnesota Wild 42.3 31.1 8.6 93.1 35 58 113 69 0.23 0.00 57.7% 38.3% 1.2% 0.7% 6.9% 3.1%
                                   
6 Dallas Stars 36.7 33.9 11.4 84.8 31 54 105 62 -0.42 0.06 13.1% 10.5% 1.2% 0.5%
7 Colorado Avalanche 34.8 33.1 14.1 83.7 30 54 105 62 -0.42 0.11 10.1% 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 46.0 25.8 10.2 102.2 49 53 126 83 0.09 -0.06 94.7% 5.0% 54.1% 12.2% 9.7% 4.4%
2 Vancouver Canucks 44.2 30.2 7.6 96.0 40 56 120 74 -0.03 -0.09 76.7% 11.5% 15.1% 2.2% 6.1% 2.5%
3 San Jose Sharks 43.2 29.4 9.4 95.9 42 54 114 76 0.11 -0.18 76.4% 15.8% 15.4% 1.8% 6.2% 2.2%
                                   
4 Los Angeles Kings 41.6 29.1 11.3 94.5 40 54 117 75 0.18 -0.12 67.6% 14.6% 11.5% 1.5% 5.9% 3.0%
5 Calgary Flames 41.5 32.5 8.1 91.0 37 54 110 68 0.15 0.00 45.1% 13.8% 3.9% 0.3% 5.2% 2.7%
6 Arizona Coyotes 32.6 39.0 10.4 75.6 26 50 95 53 -1.01 -0.08 0.8% 0.6%
7 Edmonton Oilers 27.0 42.2 12.8 66.8 20 47 87 45 -1.27 -0.02