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Playoff Probabilities Report

Results based on the method used by Justin Kubatko to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Projected Standings

Explanation ▪ Results based on 1000 simulations of remainder of season
Rk Eastern Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 47.2 26.7 8.1 102.5 32 71 122 80 0.81 0.03 93.5% 15.6% 38.3% 16.6% 16.5% 8.4%
2 Montreal Canadiens 46.5 27.9 7.6 100.6 33 68 121 78 0.29 0.12 88.0% 20.7% 23.5% 9.1% 8.6% 4.2%
3 Detroit Red Wings 43.9 26.6 11.5 99.2 29 70 122 76 0.53 0.07 83.8% 23.3% 20.0% 8.2% 10.0% 4.1%
4 Ottawa Senators 42.0 29.1 11.0 94.9 24 71 116 70 0.22 0.13 64.7% 29.7% 7.3% 2.7% 6.4% 3.0%
5 Toronto Maple Leafs 41.9 30.4 9.8 93.5 25 68 115 74 0.29 0.16 59.7% 32.4% 5.7% 1.6% 6.1% 2.8%
                                   
6 Boston Bruins 42.1 32.0 7.9 92.1 27 65 117 68 -0.04 -0.13 49.2% 27.7% 3.5% 1.5% 4.2% 2.1%
7 Florida Panthers 37.4 31.0 13.6 88.4 22 66 109 64 -0.56 -0.11 29.9% 19.5% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 0.3%
8 Buffalo Sabres 31.3 40.7 10.0 72.6 14 59 99 50 -1.50 0.09 0.5% 0.4%
Metropolitan Division
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 49.9 24.1 8.0 107.8 32 76 128 86 1.35 0.07 98.8% 0.7% 68.2% 44.1% 21.1% 12.8%
2 New York Islanders 47.9 27.6 6.5 102.3 32 70 126 77 0.63 0.04 94.2% 2.2% 26.9% 14.8% 14.2% 6.9%
3 Washington Capitals 39.1 31.7 11.2 89.3 22 67 109 61 -0.13 -0.17 44.3% 7.0% 1.8% 0.2% 3.8% 1.1%
                                   
4 New York Rangers 39.1 32.0 10.8 89.1 22 67 114 65 0.06 0.15 39.0% 8.9% 1.5% 0.4% 3.9% 1.7%
5 New Jersey Devils 38.2 33.7 10.1 86.4 21 65 117 64 -0.44 0.02 27.3% 4.8% 0.9% 0.3% 2.0% 0.9%
6 Philadelphia Flyers 37.6 34.2 10.3 85.4 19 66 109 61 -0.32 0.01 21.6% 6.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.4% 0.4%
7 Carolina Hurricanes 33.7 37.5 10.7 78.2 15 63 98 58 -0.95 -0.23 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2%
8 Columbus Blue Jackets 32.2 39.8 10.0 74.4 14 60 94 54 -1.31 -0.12 1.6% 0.2%
Rk Western Conference W L OL PTS Current Remain Best Worst SRS SOS Playoffs Wild Card Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Cup
Central Division
1 Nashville Predators 47.6 26.1 8.4 103.5 32 71 125 79 0.83 0.06 94.8% 9.6% 44.6% 29.1% 15.3% 8.8%
2 St. Louis Blues 45.5 27.9 8.6 99.6 30 70 120 77 0.63 0.04 86.8% 19.4% 23.5% 14.0% 11.3% 6.1%
3 Chicago Blackhawks 45.8 29.1 7.2 98.7 27 72 117 79 0.97 0.06 84.4% 18.7% 18.9% 11.7% 14.3% 7.7%
4 Minnesota Wild 44.0 31.4 6.6 94.6 24 71 118 72 0.42 -0.06 68.0% 25.1% 8.7% 4.7% 9.4% 4.8%
5 Winnipeg Jets 41.1 31.3 9.6 91.7 27 65 112 73 -0.04 0.09 51.4% 27.1% 3.2% 1.5% 5.1% 2.5%
                                   
6 Dallas Stars 37.8 33.0 11.2 86.8 22 65 110 62 -0.34 0.12 26.9% 17.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.9% 0.7%
7 Colorado Avalanche 35.9 33.9 12.2 84.1 21 63 107 61 -0.53 0.08 15.4% 10.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 44.3 26.1 11.6 100.2 33 67 122 75 0.27 -0.03 90.3% 10.3% 33.6% 13.8% 10.3% 6.0%
2 Vancouver Canucks 45.2 29.0 7.8 98.2 31 67 121 76 0.12 -0.15 84.2% 14.0% 24.4% 10.3% 9.4% 4.0%
3 Calgary Flames 44.6 29.1 8.3 97.5 30 68 121 75 0.49 0.03 80.6% 13.1% 23.2% 8.6% 10.3% 4.8%
                                   
4 Los Angeles Kings 42.4 28.0 11.6 96.4 29 67 117 76 0.33 -0.14 78.0% 15.2% 16.7% 5.5% 9.6% 4.3%
5 San Jose Sharks 37.8 33.2 11.0 86.6 24 63 108 63 -0.38 -0.21 26.2% 13.1% 1.7% 0.3% 1.5% 0.7%
6 Arizona Coyotes 36.4 35.3 10.3 83.1 21 62 105 59 -0.66 -0.05 11.5% 5.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5%
7 Edmonton Oilers 31.9 39.5 10.6 74.4 15 59 96 51 -1.12 0.05 1.5% 1.3%